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Matchday 1 by the Numbers: xG, Surprises, and Early Trends

Thirty-two teams. Eight groups. Forty-eight matches to come. After Matchday 1, the data is already telling us interesting things.

Goals vs Expected Goals

The most overperforming team through one match? Senegal, who scored three from an xG of 1.2. Omar Marmoush was unplayable, converting two chances that models would put at under 0.3 each.

The most unlucky? Japan, who generated 2.6 xG in their 0–1 defeat to Spain. Their finishing — particularly from close range — let them down badly.

| Team | Goals | xG | Difference | |---|---|---|---| | Senegal | 3 | 1.21 | +1.79 | | Brazil | 2 | 1.98 | +0.02 | | Spain | 1 | 0.89 | +0.11 | | Japan | 0 | 2.61 | −2.61 | | Germany | 4 | 3.44 | +0.56 |

Pressing Intensity

PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) has become the standard metric for pressing intensity. Lower = higher press.

Germany recorded the lowest PPDA of the opening round at 4.3, suffocating their opponents into a string of errors that led to two goals. Mexico were the most passive at 14.1.

Distance Covered

The endurance numbers from Matchday 1:

  • USA led all teams with 118.2km covered — fitting given the host nation energy
  • Saudi Arabia covered the least at 102.7km, a concerning sign given the heat in Dallas
  • Midfielders accounted for 34% of total distance covered across all matches

Shot Volume Leaders

  1. Germany — 22 shots
  2. Brazil — 19 shots
  3. France — 18 shots

France's 18 shots producing just one goal will be a concern for Deschamps, though the quality of chances created was genuinely high.

Early Tournament Trends

High lines are being punished. Three of the six goals from defensive errors came from teams caught with a high defensive line on the counter. Coaches will be adjusting.

Set pieces are already delivering. Six of the twenty-two first-round goals came from set pieces. Teams that have prepared dead ball routines are cashing in early.

The 60–75 minute window is lethal. Fourteen goals — over 60% — came in that final third of regulation. Fitness and squad depth matter more than ever with 16 extra teams in this expanded field.

More data after Matchday 2.